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There's a Fuse Box Buried Deep
Within the U.S. Economy... and its about to blow... When it does, the lights on
the dimming U.S. economy will go black...
Major banks (once thought "too big
too fail") will be shaken to the ground. Corporate bankruptcies will soar.
Bonds will crash. the Dow will dive towards 4000. And the dollar will continue
its slide into the dustbin of monetary history...
The Derivatives Time
Bomb
Deep in the shadows of the real economy lies an
underground economy where the world's largest financial players conduct secret
transactions worth trillions of dollars.
These transactions are made far away from the
headlines of the evening news. You'll seldom read about them in the Wall
Street Journal... and you'll rarely hear about them on CNN - yet they
effect every investment you make: Your stocks, your bonds, your mutual funds --
even your real estate.
Financially they act like a giant underground fuse
box... whose financial currents (though invisible) are channeled through to the
real world of day-to-day investments. In the same way unseen electrical
currents power our physical world, so too do these unseen financial
currents secretly power our economy.
Occasionally though, something happens. A country
blows up... or a bank... or an investment fund... that reveals the catastrophic
power these financial currents carry. We witnessed their effects when world
stock markets collapsed in 1987... when Asian markets plummeted in 1997... when
the LTCM hedge fund collapsed in 1998. But even these devastating events could
pale in comparison to what lies ahead.
A series of events are about to unfold that will
short-circuit the system and cause this giant underground fuse box to blow.
When it does, we may bear witness to the largest financial upheaval since
1929... and the lights on our dimming economy will indeed go black.
A Brief
History of Derivatives
(The Most
Dangerous and Controversial Financial Instruments Ever
Created)
The giant bubble forming in the global derivatives
market (led by America's big banks) bears frightening resemblance to the
S&L crisis. In the 1980's a lack of regulation and oversight allowed
America's banks to trade dishonestly, hide losses and embezzle client and
government funds. The same scenario is unfolding right now amongst the world's
global derivatives traders. America's big banks, big corporations and mutual
funds have turned into giant casinos... using unregulated over-the-counter and
massively leveraged derivative bets as a new source of income... and as a way
to disguise losses and dupe investors. The difference though to the S&L
crisis is that when the derivatives bubble finally blows, the fall-out will be
100 times worse. The S&L crisis cost American taxpayers hundreds of
billions of dollars and depressed the real estate market for years. But no pot
will be big enough to bail out America this time.
| 1973 |
The Chicago Board Options
Exchange opens... and trading in large-scale derivatives begins. |
| 1983 |
President Reagan signed the
1982 Futures Trading Act for derivatives. This was a major feature in the
disastrous Reagan-era deregulation of the U.S. economy. |
| 1986 |
The notational value of
derivatives balloons to $618 billion... |
| 1987 |
The failure of the stock
markets and the derivatives markets to operate in sync, causes the collapse of
global stock markets (according to the Presidential Task Force on Market
Mechanisms)... and the terrific force of derivatives is felt for the first
time. |
| 1988 |
The notational value of
derivatives hits the $1 trillion mark. |
| 1994 |
Global derivatives market
exceeds $10 trillion mark... and the first series of major derivatives failures
begins. (Metallgesellshaft loses $1.5 billion on oil futures, Proctor
& Gamble loses $157 million by trading derivatives, Orange
County, California, publicly acknowledges a $1.5 billion loss due to its
derivatives plays, bankrupting the county.) |
| 1995 |
Barings Bank goes bust because
one rogue trader, Nick Leeson, loses $1.4 billion with derivatives bets on the
Nikkei index that were shattered by the Kobe earthquake. |
| 1995 |
Wisconsin's $6.7 billion State
Investment Board posts $95 million loss from unauthorized use of
derivatives. |
| 1997 |
Under-regulated,
derivative-based credit swap contracts causes the collapse of the Asian
markets. |
| 1998 |
The derivatives trading of a
single hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, almost causes the collapse of
global stock markets. Fed organizes a $3.5 billion bailout. |
| 2000 |
Global derivatives positions
leap to more than $95 trillion - even as the stock market crashes and the
global economy goes into recession. |
| 2001 |
Enron (without the public
knowing it) had secretly transformed itself from an energy trader into an
unregulated derivatives player, causing its eventual collapse. |
| 2003 |
Fannie Mae lost $8.4 billion
on its derivatives portfolio causing its stock to plummet. |
| 2003 |
Buffet warns investors that
the bubble in the derivatives market is a "mega-catastrophe waiting to happen."
His comments send ripples through global markets. |
| 2006 |
Global derivatives market
exceeds $400 trillion (more than 7 times the size of the entire global
economy). |
Are You
Banking at One of These Casinos?
Derivatives were designed to help banks,
corporations and countries hedge against risk. But banks found they could make
a killing by concocting more exotic derivatives that effectively bet on the
future direction of interest rates, foreign exchange, commodities and stock
indexes. And since banks aren't making money from traditional lending any more,
derivatives are a fantastic new way to net huge gains. And why not take some
big risks when the Fed will "supposedly" back you - and the transactions can
stay off the books - far away from the prying eyes of investors and analysts.
As we see it, America's banks have turned into giant casinos. And now this
Giant Casino Economy has begun to splinter. Are you banking with one of
them?
| RANK |
BANK NAME |
DERIVATIVES (in $US Billions) as of 3/31/07 |
| 1 |
JPMorgan Chase |
$70,817.3 |
| 2 |
Citibank |
$30,070.0 |
| 3 |
Bank of America |
$28,535.9 |
| 4 |
HSBC Bank |
$5,649.2 |
| 5 |
Wachovia Bank |
$5,454.0 |
| 6 |
Bank of New York |
$959.7 |
| 7 |
Wells Fargo Bank |
$879.8 |
| 8 |
State Street Bank &
Trust |
$588.2 |
| 9 |
PNC Bank National |
$244.9 |
| 10 |
Sun Trust Bank |
$204.2 |
| 11 |
Mellon Bank |
$133.3 |
| 12 |
National City Bank |
$133.2 |
| 13 |
Northern Trust Company |
$112.0 |
| 14 |
Keybank |
$96.9 |
| 15 |
Lasalle Bank National |
$76.6 |
| 16 |
U.S. Bank |
$74.8 |
| 17 |
Merrill Lynch Bank |
$72.4 |
| 18 |
Branch Banking & Trust
Co. |
$43.7 |
| 19 |
Regions Bank |
$40.9 |
| 20 |
Fifth Third Bank |
$35.4 |
| 21 |
First Tennessee Bank |
$31.6 |
| 22 |
Deutsche Bank Trust Co. |
$26.9 |
| 23 |
Union Bank of California |
$24.2 |
| 24 |
Capital One Bank |
$23.5 |
| 25 |
Lehman Brothers Bank |
$23.5 |
Bank failures occur every year in America. There
were more than 1,000 bank failures between the years 1986 - 1990 during the
S&L debacle, which cost American taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars
and depressed the real estate market for years. And now considering the
self-serving and dangerous practices Wall Street's banks are engaging in -
where would you prefer to bank? In America or in age-old financial havens
who've shown little systemic risk and who haven't experienced a bank failure in
their 200-year-old financial history?
Don't let these thieves drag you down with
them...
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